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Aine Seitz McCarthy
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Filipino migration patterns, according to the coolest economist I know

5/9/2012

3 Comments

 
Caroline Theoharides and co-authors ask whether "Dubai gets more Filipino migrants when its economy is booming relative to other countries in the world, and whether it pays them more when its economy is booming."

One of their main findings, posted on the World Bank development impact blog, includes the fact that: a 1% increase in GDP at destination leads to 1.5% more migrants, which implies that workers both have an opportunity for substantial wage gains via migration, but also that migrant numbers will be very vulnerable to GDP shocks at destination.

To some degree, this answer seems completely intuitive. In the US, the narrative has been that numbers of foreign-born workers dropped significantly during the recession. However (and Caroline can correct me on this), my impression is that finding empirical evidence to support this story (as with many stories of migration) is a major challenge, especially in the US where many migrants are working illegally.

However, the Migration Policy Institute does have good research on estimates of foreign-born workers using CPS data. And this graph, which comes from a policy paper on the impact of financial collapse in Caroline et al's references, hypothesizes the following numbers of foreign-born workers in the US:

Picture
The pink circle is the estimated drop in expected foreign born population during the recession. It seems to me that Caroline et al look hard at the pink circle and use Filipino migration data to find solid evidence in support of the influence of destination-country GDP on that pink circle.
3 Comments
ghd hair straightener link
7/31/2012 12:26:12 pm

Seems like plenty of American men who don't want children have internalized what the costs would be to themselves. Maybe that's the better route to take.

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Cheap WOW Gold link
7/31/2012 05:14:50 pm

Seems like plenty of American

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9/27/2013 11:19:19 am

I just created a weebly account after finding your blog, thanks.

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    Aine Seitz McCarthy

    International development, economics and some pretty ambitious ideas from a stubborn graduate student clinging to her sense of adventure.


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